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Abstract In the age of large-scale galaxy and lensing surveys, such as DESI, Euclid, Roman, and Rubin, we stand poised to usher in a transformative new phase of data-driven cosmology. To fully harness the capabilities of these surveys, it is critical to constrain the poorly understood influence of baryon feedback physics on the matter power spectrum. We investigate the use of a powerful and novel cosmological probe, fast radio bursts (FRBs), to capture baryonic effects on the matter power spectrum, leveraging simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (or CAMELS) project, including IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid. We find that FRB statistics exhibit a strong correlation, independent of the subgrid model and cosmology, with quantities known to encapsulate baryonic impacts on the matter power spectrum, such as baryon spread and the halo baryon fraction. We propose an innovative method utilizing FRB observations to quantify the effects of feedback physics and enhance weak-lensing measurements ofS₈. We outline the necessary steps to prepare for the imminent detection of large FRB populations in the coming years, focusing on understanding the redshift evolution of FRB observables and mitigating the effects of cosmic variance. 

Abstract We present a composite machine learning framework to estimate posterior probability distributions of bulge-to-total light ratio, half-light radius, and flux for active galactic nucleus (AGN) host galaxies withinz < 1.4 andm < 23 in the Hyper Supreme-Cam (HSC) Wide survey. We divide the data into five redshift bins:low(0 < z < 0.25),mid(0.25 < z < 0.5),high(0.5 < z < 0.9),extra(0.9 < z < 1.1), andextreme(1.1 < z < 1.4), and train our models independently in each bin. We use PSFGAN to decompose the AGN point-source light from its host galaxy, and invoke the Galaxy Morphology Posterior Estimation Network (GaMPEN) to estimate morphological parameters of the recovered host galaxy. We first trained our models on simulated data, and then fine-tuned our algorithm via transfer learning using labeled real data. To create training labels for transfer learning, we used GALFIT to fit  ∼20,000 real HSC galaxies in each redshift bin. We comprehensively examined that the predicted values from our final models agree well with the GALFIT values for the vast majority of cases. Our PSFGAN + GaMPEN framework runs at least three orders of magnitude faster than traditional light-profile fitting methods, and can be easily retrained for other morphological parameters or on other data sets with diverse ranges of resolutions, seeing conditions, and signal-to-noise ratios, making it an ideal tool for analyzing AGN host galaxies from large surveys coming soon from the Rubin-LSST, Euclid, and Roman telescopes. 

Abstract The circumgalactic medium (CGM) around massive galaxies plays a crucial role in regulating star formation and feedback. Using the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) suite, we develop emulators for the X-ray surface brightness profile and the X-ray luminosity–stellar mass scaling relation, to investigate how stellar and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback shape the X-ray properties of the hot CGM. Our analysis shows that at CGM scales (10¹²≲M_halo/M_⊙≲ 10¹³, 10 ≲rkpc⁻¹≲ 400), stellar feedback more significantly impacts the X-ray properties than AGN feedback within the parameters studied. Comparing the emulators to recent eROSITA All Sky Survey (eRASS) observations, it is found that stronger feedback than is currently implemented in the IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid simulations is required to match the observed CGM properties. However, adopting these enhanced feedback parameters causes deviations in the stellar mass–halo mass relations from observational constraints below the group-mass scale. This tension suggests possible unaccounted-for systematics in X-ray CGM observations or inadequacies in the feedback models of cosmological simulations. 

Abstract The baryonic physics shaping galaxy formation and evolution are complex, spanning a vast range of scales and making them challenging to model. Cosmological simulations rely on subgrid models that produce significantly different predictions. Understanding how models of stellar and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback affect baryon behavior across different halo masses and redshifts is essential. Using the SIMBA and IllustrisTNG suites from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project, we explore the effect of parameters governing the subgrid implementation of stellar and AGN feedback. We find that while IllustrisTNG shows higher cumulative feedback energy across all halos, SIMBA demonstrates a greater spread of baryons, quantified by the closure radius and circumgalactic medium (CGM) gas fraction. This suggests that feedback in SIMBA couples more effectively to baryons and drives them more efficiently within the host halo. There is evidence that the different feedback modes are highly interrelated in these subgrid models. The parameters controlling the stellar feedback efficiency significantly impact AGN feedback, as seen in the suppression of black hole mass growth and delayed activation of AGN feedback to higher-mass halos with increasing stellar feedback efficiency in both simulations. Additionally, the AGN feedback efficiency parameters affect the CGM gas fraction at low halo masses in SIMBA, hinting at complex, nonlinear interactions between the AGN and supernova feedback modes. Overall, we demonstrate that stellar and AGN feedback are intimately interwoven, especially at low redshift, due to subgrid implementation, resulting in halo property effects that might initially seem counterintuitive. 

ABSTRACT We explore the evolution of cold streams from the cosmic web that feed galaxies through their shock-heated circumgalactic medium (CGM) at cosmic noon, $$z\simeq 1-5$$. In addition to the hydrodynamical instabilities and radiative cooling that we have incorporated in earlier works, we embed the stream and the hot CGM in the gravitational potential of the host dark matter halo, deriving equilibrium profiles for both. Self-gravity within the stream is tentatively ignored. We find that the cold streams gradually entrain a large mass of initially hot CGM gas that cools in the mixing layer and condenses onto the stream. This entrainment, combined with the acceleration down the gravitational potential well, typically triples the inward cold inflow rate into the central galaxy, compared to the original rate at the virial radius, which makes the entrained gas the dominant source of gas supply to the galaxy. The potential sources for the hot gas to be entrained are recycled enriched gas that has been previously ejected from the galaxy, and fresh virial-shock-heated gas that has accumulated in the CGM. This can naturally elevate the star formation rate in the galaxy by a factor of $$\sim 3$$ compared to the gas accretion rate onto the halo, thus explaining the otherwise puzzling observed excess of star formation at cosmic noon. When accounting for self-shielding of dense gas from the ultraviolet background, we find that the energy radiated from the streams, originating predominantly from the cooling of the entrained gas, is consistent with observed Lyman-$$\alpha$$ blobs around galaxies. 

Abstract Most diffuse baryons, including the circumgalactic medium (CGM) surrounding galaxies and the intergalactic medium (IGM) in the cosmic web, remain unmeasured and unconstrained. Fast radio bursts (FRBs) offer an unparalleled method to measure the electron dispersion measures (DMs) of ionized baryons. Their distribution can resolve the missing baryon problem and constrain the history of feedback theorized to impart significant energy to the CGM and IGM. We analyze the Cosmology and Astrophysics with Machine Learning Simulations using three suites, IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid, each varying six parameters (two cosmological and four astrophysical feedback), for a total of 183 distinct simulation models. We find significantly different predictions between the fiducial models of the suites owing to their different implementations of feedback. SIMBA exhibits the strongest feedback, leading to the smoothest distribution of baryons and reducing the sight-line-to-sight-line variance in DMs betweenz= 0 and 1. Astrid has the weakest feedback and the largest variance. We calculate FRB CGM measurements as a function of galaxy impact parameter, with SIMBA showing the weakest DMs due to aggressive active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback and Astrid the strongest. Within each suite, the largest differences are due to varying AGN feedback. IllustrisTNG shows the most sensitivity to supernova feedback, but this is due to the change in the AGN feedback strengths, demonstrating that black holes, not stars, are most capable of redistributing baryons in the IGM and CGM. We compare our statistics directly to recent observations, paving the way for the use of FRBs to constrain the physics of galaxy formation and evolution. 

Abstract We present a novel approach for identifying cosmic web filaments within theDisPerSEstructure identification framework, using cosmic density field estimates from the Monte Carlo Physarum Machine (MCPM), inspired by the slime mold organism. We apply our method to the IllustrisTNG (TNG100) cosmological simulations and investigate the impact of filaments on galaxies. The MCPM density field is superior to the Delaunay tessellation field estimator in tracing the true underlying matter distribution and allows filaments to be identified with higher fidelity, finding more low-prominence/diffuse filaments. Using our new filament catalogs, we find that ≳90% of galaxies are located within ∼1.5 Mpc of a filamentary spine, with little change in the median star formation activity with distance to the nearest filament. Instead, we uncover a differential effect of the local filament line density, Σ_fil(MCPM)—the total MCPM overdensity per unit length along a filament segment—on galaxy formation: most galaxies are quenched and gas-poor near high-line density filaments atz≤ 1. At earlier times, the filamentary environment appears to have no effect on galactic gas supply and quenching. Atz= 0, quenching in $\log (M_{*}/M_{\odot })\gtrsim 10.5$galaxies is mainly driven by mass, while lower-mass galaxies are significantly affected by the filament line density. Satellites are far more susceptible to filaments than centrals. The local environments of massive halos are not sufficient to account for the effect of filament line density on gas removal and quenching. Our new approach holds great promise for observationally identifying filaments from galaxy surveys such as SDSS and DESI. 

ABSTRACT The circum-galactic medium (CGM) can feasibly be mapped by multiwavelength surveys covering broad swaths of the sky. With multiple large data sets becoming available in the near future, we develop a likelihood-free Deep Learning technique using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to infer broad-scale physical properties of a galaxy’s CGM and its halo mass for the first time. Using CAMELS (Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations) data, including IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid models, we train CNNs on Soft X-ray and 21-cm (H i) radio two-dimensional maps to trace hot and cool gas, respectively, around galaxies, groups, and clusters. Our CNNs offer the unique ability to train and test on ‘multifield’ data sets comprised of both H i and X-ray maps, providing complementary information about physical CGM properties and improved inferences. Applying eRASS:4 survey limits shows that X-ray is not powerful enough to infer individual haloes with masses log (Mhalo/M⊙) < 12.5. The multifield improves the inference for all halo masses. Generally, the CNN trained and tested on Astrid (SIMBA) can most (least) accurately infer CGM properties. Cross-simulation analysis – training on one galaxy formation model and testing on another – highlights the challenges of developing CNNs trained on a single model to marginalize over astrophysical uncertainties and perform robust inferences on real data. The next crucial step in improving the resulting inferences on the physical properties of CGM depends on our ability to interpret these deep-learning models. 

Abstract Galaxy formation models within cosmological hydrodynamical simulations contain numerous parameters with nontrivial influences over the resulting properties of simulated cosmic structures and galaxy populations. It is computationally challenging to sample these high dimensional parameter spaces with simulations, in particular for halos in the high-mass end of the mass function. In this work, we develop a novel sampling and reduced variance regression method,CARPoolGP, which leverages built-in correlations between samples in different locations of high dimensional parameter spaces to provide an efficient way to explore parameter space and generate low-variance emulations of summary statistics. We use this method to extend the Cosmology and Astrophysics with machinE Learning Simulations to include a set of 768 zoom-in simulations of halos in the mass range of 10¹³–10^14.5M_⊙h⁻¹that span a 28-dimensional parameter space in the IllustrisTNG model. With these simulations and the CARPoolGP emulation method, we explore parameter trends in the ComptonY–M, black hole mass–halo mass, and metallicity–mass relations, as well as thermodynamic profiles and quenched fractions of satellite galaxies. We use these emulations to provide a physical picture of the complex interplay between supernova and active galactic nuclei feedback. We then use emulations of theY–Mrelation of massive halos to perform Fisher forecasts on astrophysical parameters for future Sunyaev–Zeldovich observations and find a significant improvement in forecasted constraints. We publicly release both the simulation suite and CARPoolGP software package. 

ABSTRACT We quantify the cosmological spread of baryons relative to their initial neighbouring dark matter distribution using thousands of state-of-the-art simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project. We show that dark matter particles spread relative to their initial neighbouring distribution owing to chaotic gravitational dynamics on spatial scales comparable to their host dark matter halo. In contrast, gas in hydrodynamic simulations spreads much further from the initial neighbouring dark matter owing to feedback from supernovae (SNe) and active galactic nuclei (AGN). We show that large-scale baryon spread is very sensitive to model implementation details, with the fiducial simba model spreading ∼40 per cent of baryons >1 Mpc away compared to ∼10 per cent for the IllustrisTNG and astrid models. Increasing the efficiency of AGN-driven outflows greatly increases baryon spread while increasing the strength of SNe-driven winds can decrease spreading due to non-linear coupling of stellar and AGN feedback. We compare total matter power spectra between hydrodynamic and paired N-body simulations and demonstrate that the baryonic spread metric broadly captures the global impact of feedback on matter clustering over variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters, initial conditions, and (to a lesser extent) galaxy formation models. Using symbolic regression, we find a function that reproduces the suppression of power by feedback as a function of wave number (k) and baryonic spread up to $$k \sim 10\, h$$ Mpc−1 in SIMBA while highlighting the challenge of developing models robust to variations in galaxy formation physics implementation.